(I've arrived at this conclusion by reasoning or looking at the evidence.) Note that we use must to show that we deduced this – we have arrived at this conclusion by reasoning. We use must when we feel sure that something is true or think it's the only realistic possibility. Grammar test 1: Grammar C1: Modals – probability: 1 To learn how to express probability in relation to past events go to Modals – deductions about the past. This page focuses on expressing the probability of present and future situations. You're bound to make mistakes occasionally. Look at these examples to see how modal verbs and other expressions are used to show how certain the speaker is about something.